|
MARKET SUPPLIE AND DEMAND
The world petroleum demands don¡¯t recover obviously in the
second quarter and increasing demands at the last half year may
be lower the former expectation. Up to now, it is effective that
OPEC executes the slight modulation on market supplies. After
the output quota in the first quarter is used in the second
quarter, OPEC decides to sustain and carry out the quotas until
the third quarter in June. OPEC¡¯s serious over-production since
the second quarter and increasing demands less than anticipated
practically make OPEC have no space to augment the yield
further. The limiting production in oil-producing countries
controls the growing west storage, which shows that market
supplies meet demands at present from another aspect.
Demands
In the first half of this year, the petroleum demand amounts in
USA level with one year ago roughly. The demands amount in June
is up to 19,600,000 barrels daily, up 0.4% compared with the
same period in 2001. When the demand amounts of other oil
products such as gasoline, liquid gas and naphtha are up, the
demand amounts of middle cut oil and fuel oil are down. Lower
price of natural gas makes the power factory¡¯s users turn to
burn more cheap natural gas and so the demand amounts of fuel
oil decrease 1/3 compared with June last year. Because the
American public are lack of confidence on the travel safe by
air, the demand amounts of aviation kerosene is down to
1,600,000 barrels from 1,800,000 barrels.
Gasoline is one of main oil products whose demands are
increased. In the first half year gasoline demands amounts is up
2% in USA, which is because lower retail price and more travel
by cars under mild weather in the first quarter. When it enters
into the third quarter, the world petroleum demands will exceed
the level of the same period last year. According to the
prediction from IEA, the global demand amounts is up to
75,900,000 barrels per day, up 300,000 barrels compared with a
year ago; the increasing amplitude is 1,100,000 barrels per day,
up to 77,500,000 barrels.
¡¡
Table 2 World
petroleum supplies and demands prediction of international
energy organization
Unit£º10
thousand barrels per day
|
Project |
1Q02 |
2Q02 |
3Q021 |
4Q021 |
2002 |
1Q03 |
2Q03 |
3Q031 |
4Q031 |
2003 |
|
Demands |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economic cooperation organization |
4790 |
4610 |
4760 |
4870 |
4760 |
4850 |
4660 |
4800 |
4930 |
4810 |
|
Non-economic cooperation
organization |
2820 |
2890 |
2830 |
2890 |
2860 |
2880 |
2940 |
2890 |
2940 |
2910 |
|
Total |
7620 |
7500 |
7590 |
7750 |
7610 |
7730 |
7600 |
7700 |
7870 |
7730 |
|
Supplies |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non-OPEC |
4780 |
4770 |
4780 |
4820 |
4790 |
4850 |
4830 |
4850 |
4900 |
4860 |
|
OPEC crude oil |
2500 |
2430 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OPEC natural gas |
330 |
350 |
350 |
350 |
350 |
360 |
360 |
370 |
370 |
360 |
|
OPEC total |
2830 |
2780 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
7610 |
7550 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Demands for OPEC |
2510 |
2390 |
2460 |
2580 |
2480 |
2530 |
2410 |
2480 |
2600 |
2510 |
|
Industrial storage amounts |
-30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance of total storage amounts |
-10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source of documents£º
IEA, ¡±Monthly Report of Petroleum Market¡±, July 12, 2002
Supplies
To accommodate the decreasing demands, the world petroleum
supplies are also reduced in the first half year. However, the
decreasing parts are all from OPEC, OPEC are losing the market
shares. In the second quarter, while OPEC¡¯s daily output
decreases from 27,000,000 barrels to 24,700,000 barrels compared
with the same period in 2001, the supply amounts not from OPEC
increase from 46,100,000 barrels to 47,700,000 barrels.
Decreasing production enlarges the OPEC¡¯s residual yield
capacities and some member states begin to complain that the
exploit capacities costing a lot of capital are in idle for a
long time, which leads to more and more serious over-production.
Due to the limiting production by oil-producing states, it
prevents from the excessive increase of west storage. At the end
of the second quarter the storage amounts in Europe and USA
level with the average storage amounts of last three years
roughly.
¡¡  Figure 2 Daily capacities and quotas
of OPEC since 2000
Daily output of OPEC¡¯s ten member states increases from
23,220,000 barrels to 23,410,000 barrels. Iraq is the most
uncertain cause in the international petroleum supply market.
Due to the argument on the problem of export price with UN, the
daily output in Iraq is down to 1,620,000 barrels from more
2,000,000 barrels normally. Increase yield of ten member states
and decrease yield of Iraq make the OPEC¡¯s output down by
400,000 barrels per day, up to 24,730,000 barrels and the yield
of ten member states from 22,830,000 barrels to 23,190,000
barrels.
Table 3 Oil-producing quotas, daily output and idle capacity of
OPEC
¡¡
Unit:10
thousand per day
|
Zones |
Yield |
Quotas |
Capacity |
|
Year 2002 |
Year
2002 |
Year
2001 |
Year
2002 |
Idle |
|
Jun. |
May |
Second quarter |
First quarter |
Jan. |
Sep. |
At the end of May |
Present |
|
Saudi
Arabia |
752.0 |
745.0 |
747.3 |
732.0 |
705.3 |
754.1 |
1050.0 |
298.0 |
|
Iran |
340.0 |
337.0 |
337.7 |
335.7 |
318.6 |
340.6 |
390.0 |
50.0 |
|
Kuwaiti |
189.0 |
187.0 |
187.7 |
183.3 |
174.1 |
186.1 |
220.0 |
31.0 |
|
UAE |
198.0 |
198.0 |
198.0 |
195.3 |
189.4 |
202.5 |
265.0 |
67.0 |
|
Cartel |
64.0 |
64.0 |
63.3 |
60.0 |
56.2 |
60.1 |
81.0 |
17.0 |
|
Algeria |
84.0 |
85.0 |
83.7 |
78.0 |
69.3 |
74.1 |
105.0 |
21.0 |
|
Libya |
131.0 |
131.0 |
130.7 |
128.3 |
116.2 |
124.2 |
150.0 |
19.0 |
|
Nigeria |
193.0 |
190.0 |
192.7 |
195.3 |
178.7 |
191.1 |
220.0 |
27.0 |
|
Indonesia |
115.0 |
115.0 |
115.0 |
115.0 |
112.5 |
120.3 |
125.0 |
10.0 |
|
Venezuela |
275.0 |
270.0 |
263.3 |
260.0 |
249.7 |
267.0 |
320.0 |
45.0 |
|
10
member states |
2341.0 |
2322.0 |
2319.3 |
2283.0 |
2170.0 |
2320.1 |
2926.0 |
585.0 |
|
Iraq* |
162.0 |
177.0 |
154.0 |
227.0 |
- |
- |
280.0 |
118.0 |
|
Total
of OPEC |
2503.0 |
2499.0 |
2473.3 |
2510.0 |
- |
- |
3206.0 |
703.0 |
|
Member
states of Middle East** |
1543.0 |
1531.0 |
1534.0 |
1506.3 |
1443.5 |
1543.4 |
2006.0 |
463.0 |
*The supplies of Iraq
according to the U.N. agreement of petroleum exchanging food,
not participating in the agreement of OPEC¡£**
Not including Iraq.
The second quarter is usually the season of stockpiling the
petroleum storage during the slack season of the demands in
Europe and USA. Because weak demand and less gross profit limit
the operating rate of refineries, the increase of petroleum
storage in Europe and USA in the second quarter is up to the
minimum since last October. After the climbing continues three
months, petroleum storage in Europe and USA at the end of June
amounts to 2,096,000,000 barrels, up 24,300,000 barrels compared
with the end of March. Among them, crude oil storage amounts
reduce 270,000 barrels and product oil storage amounts increase
27,000,000 barrels. Gasoline storage amounts reduce 6,000,000
barrels, which is from Europe but America is up. Even so,
petroleum storage in Europe and USA is still 31,200,000 barrels
more than the same period last year. Most of excess parts are
crude oil and crude oil storage amounts in Europe and USA are
29,400,000 barrels more than a year ago and product oil is only
1,800,000 barrels more.
 Figure3 Petroleum storage in USA and
EU compared with one year ago
Table 4 Changes of Europe and USA¡¯ petroleum storage since two
years
¡¡
|
Time |
USA£¨10
thousand barrels£© |
Europe£¨10
thousand barrels£© |
|
Crude oil |
Product
oil |
Gasoline |
Cut oil |
Crude oil |
Product
oil |
Gasoline |
Cut oil |
|
Jun. in 2000 |
29380 |
66740 |
20950 |
10600 |
44200 |
60980 |
14740 |
31910 |
|
Jul. in 2000 |
28570 |
68800 |
20940 |
11270 |
43600 |
63150 |
15070 |
33550 |
|
Aug. in 2000 |
28730 |
67410 |
19440 |
11070 |
42640 |
63880 |
14940 |
33840 |
|
Sep. in 2000 |
27790 |
67990 |
19690 |
11510 |
43250 |
63240 |
15180 |
33660 |
|
Oct. in 2000 |
28320 |
66290 |
18700 |
11480 |
41760 |
63620 |
15390 |
33300 |
|
Nov. in 2000 |
28640 |
67260 |
19830 |
12000 |
42420 |
64240 |
15370 |
33980 |
|
DEC. in 2000 |
28550 |
64240 |
19590 |
11800 |
42260 |
64830 |
15420 |
34290 |
|
Jan. in 2001 |
29210 |
63890 |
20440 |
11520 |
42000 |
64210 |
15580 |
33640 |
|
Feb. in 2001 |
27810 |
63780 |
20340 |
11590 |
42520 |
64810 |
15980 |
33800 |
|
Mar. in 2001 |
30680 |
63100 |
19360 |
10490 |
44520 |
62340 |
15210 |
32080 |
|
Apr. in 2001 |
31850 |
64170 |
19940 |
10290 |
44790 |
63100 |
15770 |
32410 |
|
May. in 2001 |
32580 |
68600 |
21270 |
10710 |
43960 |
62270 |
14370 |
32910 |
|
Jun. in 2001 |
30810 |
71150 |
22070 |
11390 |
42585 |
61910 |
14396 |
32855 |
|
Jul. in 2001 |
31140 |
70670 |
20930 |
12160 |
43330 |
61500 |
14770 |
32220 |
|
Aug. in 2001 |
30250 |
69860 |
19470 |
12040 |
43410 |
62570 |
14710 |
32990 |
|
Sep. in 2001 |
30750 |
71930 |
20450 |
12320 |
43660 |
61450 |
14610 |
32230 |
|
Oct. in 2001 |
31090 |
71310 |
20730 |
12810 |
43820 |
61830 |
14140 |
32960 |
|
Nov. in 2001 |
31150 |
71770 |
21210 |
13800 |
42740 |
62100 |
14650 |
32940 |
|
Dec. in 2001 |
31040 |
70150 |
20780 |
13960 |
43650 |
62760 |
15240 |
32970 |
|
Jan. in 2002 |
31920 |
69800 |
21640 |
13730 |
43220 |
63340 |
15500 |
33270 |
|
Feb. in 2002 |
32050 |
68090 |
21270 |
13080 |
44012 |
63344 |
15955 |
33945 |
|
Mar. in 2002 |
32510 |
67210 |
21180 |
12010 |
44092 |
63331 |
15649 |
34088 |
|
Apr. in 2002 |
32240 |
68330 |
21310 |
12090 |
44370 |
63270 |
15500 |
34100 |
|
May in 2002 |
32490 |
69990 |
21590 |
12750 |
43566 |
62712 |
15122 |
34013 |
|
Jun. in 2002 |
32000 |
71050 |
21600 |
12920 |
44333 |
62193 |
14629 |
34125 |
|
Jun. compared with the end of Mar. |
-510 |
3840 |
420 |
910 |
241 |
-1138 |
-1020 |
37 |
|
Jun. Compared with one year before |
1190 |
-100 |
-470 |
1530 |
1748 |
283 |
233 |
1270 |
|
Jun. compared with two years before |
2620 |
4310 |
650 |
2320 |
133 |
1213 |
-111 |
2215 |
|
Jun. Compared with three years before |
-1200 |
-2290 |
-120 |
-330 |
-1657 |
-5577 |
-1631 |
-2775 |
|
Average at the same period during three years |
31130 |
70410 |
21580 |
11747 |
44258 |
63553 |
15132 |
33888 |
|
Jun. compared with average of three years |
870 |
640 |
20 |
1173 |
75 |
-1360 |
-503 |
237 |
Note: product oil including naphtha, aviation kerosene and
fuel oil beside gasoline and cut oil. Cut oil including heating
oil and diesel oil.
Figure 4 Storage
of petroleum and crude oil price in Europe and USA
Figure 5 American
storage of crude oil, cut oil and gasoline compared with that of
last year
¡¡
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