|
PRICE CHANGE
In the first half year, the changes of oil price in
international market mainly reflect the effects of OPEC¡¯s
continuous reducing production and intense situation in Middle
East.
Crude oil
Since the beginning of this year, the decreased storage in West
due to the reduction of OPEC ¡®s output, increasing demands
brought about by recovering economy in USA, labor disturbances
of petroleum in Venezuelan as well as worries about petroleum
supplies caused by the confrontation between American and Iran
and the strife between Israel and Palestine, lead to the price
up during continuing four months. After this the oil price
decrease slightly, that Iraq stops his export for a month can¡¯t
even prevent the price down.
April is the month of the highest oil price since ¡°9.11¡± affair.
The oil price was up to the high point of about 28 dollars at
the beginning of April and Saudi Arabia¡®s commitment makes the
over-heated oil price cool that guarantees the supplies. At the
beginning of May, releasing signs of the strife between Israel
and Palestine, enlarging output in Venezuela and increasing
storage of crude oil in USA make the oil price take on a
descendant trend. The oil price is down from about 26 dollars
per barrel at the beginning of the month to 24 dollars at the
end of the month. In June the oil price fluctuates among the
narrow amplitude of 23.50-25.50 dollars per barrel. Accountants¡¯
playing tricks scandal in U.S.A. World Telecommunication
Corporation dealing with 3,800,000,000 dollars is exposed and
causes the global stock market to slump and brings the hiccup to
the oil price, too. On June 27, OPEC decides to sustain present
output quotas constant in the third quarter in order to support
the oil price. In the second quarter Benchmark oil price rises
from 21.50 dollars in the first quarter to 25.41 dollars.
However, average Benchmark oil price in the first half year is
still less than one year ago, down from 26.67 dollars per
barrels in the first half year in 2001 to 23.45 dollars.
¡¡
Table 5 Monthly
average FOB of spot crude oil in international market since one
year
Unit:
dollars per barrel
¡¡
|
Month/quarter/year |
Benchmark
|
WTI |
Dubai |
Oman |
Minas
|
Daqing |
TAPIS BLEND
|
OPEC* |
|
Average in 1999 |
18.02 |
19.20 |
17.21 |
17.05 |
17.00 |
17.49 |
17.07 |
18.74 |
|
Average in 2000 |
28.53 |
30.24 |
26.15 |
26.77 |
26.31 |
28.53 |
28.46 |
29.46 |
|
Average in 2001 |
24.89 |
25.92 |
22.86 |
22.89 |
22.75 |
24.07 |
24.00 |
25.33 |
|
Second
quarter/01 |
27.62 |
27.95 |
25.13 |
26.49 |
25.01 |
28.02 |
27.89 |
28.36 |
|
Third quarter
/01 |
25.72 |
26.67 |
24.16 |
24.64 |
24.10 |
24.78 |
24.99 |
25.64 |
|
Fourth
quarter /01 |
19.92 |
20.37 |
18.45 |
16.82 |
18.55 |
18.40 |
18.32 |
20.40 |
|
First
quarter/02 |
21.50 |
21.62 |
20.10 |
18.25 |
20.41 |
20.23 |
20.04 |
21.27 |
|
Second
quarter/02 |
25.41 |
26.24 |
24.27 |
23.24 |
24.59 |
25.35 |
25.37 |
25.61 |
|
Jun. in 2001 |
27.80 |
27.59 |
25.88 |
28.82 |
25.42 |
27.91 |
27.81 |
28.16 |
|
Jul. in 2001 |
25.85 |
28.40 |
22.51 |
24.25 |
22.74 |
25.01 |
24.88 |
27.91 |
|
Aug. in 2001 |
25.76 |
27.30 |
24.55 |
24.60 |
24.36 |
24.85 |
25.28 |
25.27 |
|
Sep. in 2001 |
26.15 |
25.93 |
24.45 |
25.06 |
24.35 |
24.41 |
24.42 |
25.86 |
|
Oct. in 2001 |
21.46 |
22.21 |
19.93 |
20.64 |
19.94 |
19.17 |
18.96 |
21.59 |
|
Nov. in 2001 |
19.19 |
19.58 |
17.60 |
15.09 |
17.69 |
18.25 |
18.14 |
20.08 |
|
Dec. in 2001 |
19.10 |
19.34 |
17.79 |
14.72 |
18.02 |
17.78 |
17.86 |
19.53 |
|
Jan. in 2002 |
19.92 |
19.69 |
18.40 |
15.63 |
18.60 |
18.86 |
18.62 |
20.11 |
|
Feb. in 2002 |
20.32 |
20.73 |
19.13 |
17.72 |
19.44 |
18.90 |
18.81 |
20.16 |
|
Mar. in 2002 |
24.19 |
24.38 |
22.69 |
21.41 |
23.19 |
22.92 |
22.70 |
23.55 |
|
Apr. in 2002 |
25.92 |
26.24 |
24.27 |
23.00 |
24.91 |
25.82 |
25.79 |
25.90 |
|
May in 2002 |
25.68 |
26.95 |
24.68 |
24.00 |
24.72 |
25.60 |
25.55 |
25.97 |
|
Jun. in 2002 |
24.62 |
25.53 |
23.86 |
22.71 |
24.15 |
24.62 |
24.77 |
24.97 |
|
Average during Jan.-Jun. |
23.45 |
23.93 |
22.19 |
20.74 |
22.50 |
22.79 |
22.70 |
23.44 |
|
Same period in 2001 |
26.97 |
28.38 |
24.41 |
25.05 |
24.17 |
26.54 |
26.36 |
27.64 |
|
Jan.-Jun. at the same period |
-3.51 |
-4.45 |
-2.23 |
-4.30 |
-1.67 |
-3.76 |
-3.65 |
-4.19 |
|
Fluctuate |
-13.0 |
-15.7 |
-9.1 |
-17.2 |
-6.9 |
-14.2 |
-13.9 |
-15.2 |
WTI is a kind of middle oil in WTI in USA. OPEC¡¯s package
price of 7 kinds of crude oil, including light crude oil in
Saudi Arabia, Sahara oil in Algeria, Bonny light oil in Nigeria,
Minas oil in Indonesia, Yismosoil in Mexico(non-OPEC),
Deyazuyanain Venezuela.
 Figure 6 Weekly average price of
main crude oil in international market
Oil products
In the first half year the trend of the world oil products
market is similar to that of crude oil but fluctuating amplify
is slower than crude oil obviously. In April the global gasoline
price increase to the highest point since ten months, whose
background is that gasoline storage in USA decrease during
continuous two months and Venezuela, one of main supply sources
breaks off the export. In April under the driving of American
market, average gasoline price in Rotterdam and Singapore is up
to 252 dollars per ton (about 30.17 dollars/barrel) and 30.11
dollars per barrel respectively, New York market up to 82.44
cent per gallon (about 34.63 dollars per barrel). The refineries
improve the yield and increase export of excessive gasoline in
Europe to USA make the price decrease by months.
The diesel oil price is also decrease. In June the average
diesel price in Rotterdam, New York and Singapore market is
27.79 dollars per barrel, 27.82 dollars and 27.53 dollars
respectively. Naphtha price went up greatly in March and April.
Strong rising in petrochemical products¡¯ price and higher
operating rate of the equipments for producing ethylene impetus
the increasing demand of Naphtha. But in the last months in the
second quarter, the price of petrochemical products¡¯ price falls
and low operating rate of ethylene producing instruments make
the Naphtha price down. However, in the second quarter the
Naphtha price in Singapore goes up from 21.62 dollars per barrel
in the first quarter to 24.94 dollars.
Table 6 Monthly average FOB of spot oil products in Singapore
market
Unit: dollars per barrel, dollars per dun
|
Month/Quarter/year |
Naphtha |
Gasoline |
Aviation
kerosene |
Diesel |
0.3S |
180C* |
380C* |
|
Average in 1999 |
19.55 |
22.45 |
22.83 |
20.44 |
16.31 |
107.08 |
103.41 |
|
Average in 2000 |
28.30 |
32.48 |
34.27 |
32.42 |
25.45 |
158.25 |
152.48 |
|
Average in 2001 |
23.79 |
27.53 |
28.33 |
27.39 |
21.84 |
134.14 |
128.70 |
|
Second
quarter/01 |
25.90 |
27.97 |
30.11 |
29.78 |
25.19 |
141.03 |
135.64 |
|
Third quarter
/01 |
23.30 |
26.95 |
29.84 |
28.82 |
22.78 |
141.94 |
136.88 |
|
Fourth
quarter /01 |
18.40 |
21.84 |
23.40 |
22.90 |
16.65 |
115.46 |
112.15 |
|
First quarter
/02 |
21.62 |
24.36 |
23.54 |
23.29 |
18.32 |
119.31 |
117.71 |
|
Second
quarter /02 |
24.94 |
29.46 |
27.19 |
28.38 |
23.29 |
151.39 |
147.30 |
|
Jun. in 2001 |
26.63 |
26.87 |
30.86 |
30.00 |
25.34 |
139.48 |
133.39 |
|
Jul. in 2001 |
24.38 |
29.60 |
31.89 |
29.17 |
22.45 |
135.39 |
128.92 |
|
Aug. in 2001 |
22.92 |
26.96 |
29.52 |
28.70 |
21.49 |
143.29 |
138.45 |
|
Sep. in 2001 |
23.94 |
29.50 |
31.19 |
29.32 |
22.54 |
150.54 |
144.29 |
|
Oct. in 2001 |
19.89 |
22.17 |
25.76 |
25.74 |
18.28 |
127.78 |
123.97 |
|
Nov. in 2001 |
17.35 |
20.93 |
22.44 |
22.22 |
15.82 |
107.28 |
103.58 |
|
Dec. in 2001 |
17.94 |
22.43 |
22.01 |
20.75 |
15.86 |
111.31 |
108.91 |
|
Jan. in 2002 |
18.97 |
20.99 |
22.93 |
21.64 |
16.63 |
106.39 |
107.50 |
|
Feb. in 2002 |
20.98 |
24.16 |
22.54 |
22.53 |
17.49 |
117.73 |
115.04 |
|
Mar. in 2002 |
24.92 |
27.93 |
25.16 |
25.69 |
20.85 |
133.83 |
130.60 |
|
Apr. in 2002 |
26.11 |
30.11 |
27.27 |
28.60 |
22.45 |
148.31 |
144.11 |
|
May in 2002 |
24.88 |
29.73 |
27.81 |
28.71 |
23.46 |
156.21 |
152.20 |
|
Jun. in 2002 |
23.83 |
28.54 |
26.49 |
27.82 |
23.95 |
149.64 |
145.58 |
|
Average during Jan.-Jun. |
23.28 |
26.91 |
25.37 |
25.83 |
20.80 |
135.35 |
132.51 |
|
Same period in 2001 |
26.73 |
30.65 |
30.04 |
28.92 |
23.97 |
139.58 |
132.88 |
|
Jan.-Jun. at the same period |
-3.45 |
-3.74 |
-4.67 |
-3.09 |
-3.17 |
-4.23 |
-0.38 |
|
Fluctuate |
-12.9 |
-12.2 |
-15.5 |
-10.7 |
-13.2 |
-3.0 |
-0.3 |
* Note: Octane value of gasoline is 95 without Pb; the sulfur
amount of diesel oil is less than 0.5%; 0.3S is a kind of fuel
oil with low sulfur; 180 centisthene and 380 centisthene is 180
centistoke and 380 centistoke high-sulfur fuel oil respectively.
Figure7
Weekly average price of spot oil products in Singapore market
¡¡
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