|
Domestic market analysis of oil and natural
gas in the second quarter
OVERVIEW
For the petroleum and petrochemical industries, the year 2002
marks the beginning of a new period. Chinese petroleum and
petrochemical industries will explore and practice the new and
adapting themselves developing mode under the international
current market game rules. The changing pace of domestic market
pattern is accelerated. Foreign companies accelerate to prepare
entering into the Chinese retail and wholesale market. Facing
the aggressive contend from large corporations, two domestic
group corporations CNPC and SINOPEC seek to follow extroverted
developing roads further.
¡¡
MARKET SUPPLY AND DEMAND
After ¡°9.11¡± affairs, lower petroleum demands in international
petroleum market have no obvious effects on domestic petroleum
market. In the first quarter the domestic product oil price is
still at high level and the growth trend of market price
promotes the buying demands in the second quarter.
Demands
Traditionally the second quarter is the busy season of domestic
product oil market demands and the consuming amounts of product
oil go up obviously. However, the product oil consuming amounts
such as gasoline, kerosene and diesel oil have no changes
between the first quarter and second quarter this year, which is
mainly because decrease demands at the end of the second quarter
counteract the former marked increase. The change of demands
emerges the mode of high in the middle and low at the two edges
during the six months in the first half year, which firstly
reflects the growth and decrease of market sales appeared as the
up and down of the price.
Market prediction is enough to dominate the sales agent s¡¯
buying policy. Domestic product oil price goes up during three
months from March to May, which promotes the market sale. It is
anticipated that the product oil price wasn¡¯t adjusted during
June and July, which makes the sales agents begin adopting the
wait-and-see stance. Thus, this makes the market sale amounts
decrease greatly and storage increase and lead to the demands
decrease anti-seasonally in the second quarter. According to
estimated figure from the State Economic and Trade Committee,
apparent consuming amounts of domestic product oil in the second
quarter decrease slightly from 29,250,000 tons in the first
quarter to 29,050,000 tons. However, due to the high demand
amounts in the first quarter, the demand amounts of domestic
product oil in the first half year increase 2.4% compared with
the same period in 2001, adding from 56,950,000 tons to
58,340,000 tons.
¡¡
Figure 10 Monthly yield of domestic gasoline, diesel oil and
fuel oil since 2000
Supply
¡¡
After the product oil prices continuously rising in March,
April, and May, refinery industries finally make up the deficits
and get surpluses. Meanwhile, with the seasonal increase of the
market demand, especially because the price markup stimulates
purchasing demand, the crude oil processing amount in May makes
the highest record, from 50.7472 million tons in the first
quarter up to 56.2617 million tons in the second quarter. With
the prediction that domestic product oil price will remain
unchanged, and that the sales volumes of domestic oil refineries
and sales companies drop sharply, the increasing stockpile
drives SINOPEC and CNPC, the two biggest corporations to cut
their oil processing volumes. After the product oil stocks of
the two biggest corporations sharply increase 14%, the stocks
growth rate in June drops to 1.5% because of production
reducing.
Table10 China¡¯s oil and natural gas output, refinery processing
volume, and main product oil output in the first half year.
¡¡
Unit: million tons
|
|
2nd quarter
2002 |
1st half
2002 |
1st half
2001 |
Change
02/01 |
|
Oil and
natural gas production |
|
|
|
|
|
Crude oil |
4,280.53 |
8,445.47 |
8,279.87 |
2.0 |
|
natural gas
(billion
m3) |
78.00 |
162.02 |
146.65 |
10.5 |
|
Crude oil
processing volume |
5,626.17 |
10,711.92 |
10,607.96 |
1.0 |
|
Gasoline |
1,069.42 |
2,071.87 |
2,136.17 |
-3.0 |
|
Kerosene |
215.41 |
403.11 |
389.85 |
3.4 |
|
Diesel |
2,006.34 |
3,809.14 |
3,677.49 |
3.6 |
|
Lubricating
oil |
93.48 |
177.37 |
168.67 |
5.2 |
|
Fuel oil |
444.12 |
937.45 |
973.37 |
-3.7 |
|
Liquefied
petroleum gas(LPG) |
298.48 |
572.42 |
552.05 |
3.7 |
Source: National Bureau
of Statistics of China
Imports and exports
With the increasing demand of oil products and the enhancement
of refineries processing volume, China¡¯s crude oil imports come
back to grow after last year¡¯s decrease, but the great decrease
of oil products import lowers the total volume of petroleum
imports. From January to June this year, the imported crude oil,
32.99 million tons, rises 3.1% in comparison with the same
period of last year; the imported product oil, 7.9557million
tons, falls 24.7% in comparison with the same period of last
year, of which fuel oil takes 81%, down 27.74%,. In the first
half year, the total import volume is 40.9488million tons, down
3.8% compared with that last year. The total export volume is
7.3362million tons, down 14.0% compared with last year. The net
oil import in the first half year is 33.6126million tons, down
1.2% compared with last year.
¡¡
Figure 11.
Comparison of crude oil processing volume and import volume
since 2000
Figure 12 China¡¯s
crude oil import volume from 1997 to 2002, based on quarters
Figure 13 China¡¯s
crude oil import sources from 1996 to 2002, based on quarters
¡¡
The
increased part of crude oil import mainly comes outside of
Middle East. The first half year import volume from Norway,
Russia, Kazakhstan and Britain etc European oilfield reaches
4.2382million tons, up 179% compared with the same period of
last year, of which the import volume from Norway rises to
1.9816million tons, up 257%, the import volume decrease results
from OPEC¡¯s four production reducing, In addition the remaining
parts are mainly heavy and sulfur-containing oil, it narrows the
price gap between light oil and heavy oil. China¡¯s oil import
avoids the Middle East heavy oil as much as possible. The import
volume from the Middle East falls 14.3%, down to 16.1688 million
tons. However, last year, China signed the crude oil import
government contracts with Saudi Arabia and Iran, the import
volume from these two countries respectively increase 18.3% and
3.3%.
Table 11 Exported volume in the first half year
¡¡
unit: million tons
|
Export
destinations |
2nd quarter
2002 |
1st half
2002 |
1st half
2001 |
Change
02/01 |
|
Japan |
81.07 |
135.51 |
195.03 |
-30.5 |
|
Indonesia |
23.86 |
45.36 |
61.09 |
-25.7 |
|
South Korea |
11.65 |
31.62 |
24.58 |
28.6 |
|
North Korea |
10.20 |
25.09 |
35.21 |
-28.7 |
|
Malaysia |
22.23 |
22.23 |
6.82 |
226.1 |
|
U.S.A. |
6.05 |
19.36 |
44.72 |
-56.7 |
|
Singapore |
- |
14.44 |
16.40 |
-12.0 |
|
Australia |
- |
8.13 |
8.93 |
-9.0 |
|
India |
- |
6.51 |
6.12 |
6.3 |
|
Thailand |
- |
- |
6.86 |
- |
|
In total |
155.06 |
308.24 |
405.76 |
-24.0 |
Source: Customs General
Administration
Table 12 Imported
volume of crude oil in the first half year
unit:
million tons
|
Import sources |
2nd quarter
2002 |
1st half
2002 |
1st half
2001 |
Change
02/01 |
|
Iran |
279.30 |
557.77 |
540.10 |
3.3 |
|
Saudi Arabia |
282.66 |
488.59 |
412.91 |
18.3 |
|
Oman |
155.23 |
360.97 |
554.08 |
-34.9 |
|
Yemen |
62.15 |
98.55 |
145.44 |
-32.2 |
|
Iraq |
13.40 |
26.58 |
37.21 |
-28.6 |
|
Qatar |
- |
25.66 |
78.54 |
-67.3 |
|
Kuwait |
36.00 |
58.75 |
73.33 |
-19.9 |
|
The United
Arab Emirates |
- |
- |
44.26 |
- |
|
Middle
East |
828.73 |
1,616.88 |
1,885.87 |
-14.3 |
|
Sudan |
182.81 |
347.65 |
231.50 |
50.2 |
|
Angola |
144.41 |
157.37 |
149.89 |
5.0 |
|
Equatorial
Guinea |
82.17 |
96.56 |
123.00 |
-21.5 |
|
Nigeria |
- |
25.56 |
45.04 |
-43.2 |
|
Congo |
26.20 |
39.88 |
26.13 |
52.6 |
|
Cameroon |
11.01 |
11.01 |
46.71 |
-76.4 |
|
Gabon |
- |
- |
14.70 |
- |
|
Libya |
- |
- |
25.04 |
- |
¡¡
|
Africa |
|
446.60 |
678.04 |
662.01 |
2.4 |
|
Indonesia |
87.95 |
182.27 |
162.54 |
12.1 |
|
Vietnam |
107.87 |
170.62 |
207.61 |
-17.8 |
|
Brunei |
46.70 |
66.80 |
33.58 |
98.9 |
|
Australia |
31.51 |
66.92 |
15.56 |
330.0 |
|
Malaysia |
48.13 |
78.98 |
58.77 |
34.4 |
|
Thailand |
5.66 |
14.08 |
15.01 |
-6.2 |
|
Papua New Guinea |
- |
- |
7.60 |
- |
|
Other
countries |
0.45 |
0.90 |
0.32 |
182.0 |
|
Asia &
pacific |
328.27 |
580.57 |
500.99 |
15.9 |
|
Norway |
72.64 |
198.16 |
55.50 |
257.0 |
|
Russia |
44.30 |
84.72 |
58.31 |
45.3 |
|
Kazakhstan |
11.91 |
32.04 |
23.91 |
34.0 |
|
Britain |
108.89 |
108.89 |
- |
- |
|
Other
countries |
- |
0.01 |
14.16 |
-99.9 |
|
Europe &
west globe |
237.75 |
423.82 |
151.88 |
179.0 |
|
In total |
1,841.35 |
3,299.31 |
3,200.75 |
3.1 |
Source: Customs General
Administration
Figure 14 China¡¯s
crude oil export volume from 1997 to 2002, based on quarters
¡¡
In the first half
year, the product oil import volume doesn¡¯t grow with China¡¯s
entry into WTO. It means that the structure of crude oil import
remains unchanged yet. The gasoline price, which is formulated
with reference to international market prices, transportation
expenses, and tariff, falls about 92yuan/ton due to gasoline
tariff reduction, and reduce the difference between the domestic
wholesale price and Singapore spot price. Of more importance is
that gasoline is a long-line product at home in a long term,
oversupply blocks up import demands. In recent several months
overplus stockpile also inhabits diesel import demands.
Table 13 Product
oil and LPG import volume in the first half year
Unit: million tons
|
|
2nd quarter
2002 |
1st half
2002 |
1st half
2001 |
Change
02/01 |
|
Product
oil import |
458.60 |
795.57 |
1055.84 |
-24.7 |
|
Automobile
gasoline |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
-58.1 |
|
Naphtha |
1.28 |
7.37 |
3.52 |
109.4 |
|
Aviation
kerosene |
42.03 |
73.92 |
93.31 |
-20.8 |
|
Burning
kerosene |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Light diesel |
7.46 |
12.80 |
14.69 |
-12.9 |
|
5-7#fuel oil
|
335.81 |
574.96 |
446.52 |
28.8 |
|
Other fuel
oil |
37.98 |
71.04 |
447.21 |
-84.1 |
|
Lubricating
oil |
3.10 |
5.65 |
6.63 |
-14.8 |
|
Lubricating
base oil |
20.13 |
35.18 |
29.33 |
19.9 |
|
LPG
import |
147.68 |
301.64 |
214.04 |
40.9 |
|
Product
oil export |
241.84 |
425.38 |
447.35 |
-4.9 |
|
Automobile
gasoline |
148.12 |
247.03 |
274.44 |
-10.0 |
|
Naphtha |
27.91 |
43.61 |
34.64 |
25.9 |
|
Aviation
kerosene |
30.69 |
63.47 |
85.72 |
-25.9 |
|
Burning
kerosene |
0.01 |
2.57 |
- |
- |
|
Light diesel |
17.32 |
30.35 |
11.73 |
158.8 |
|
5-7#fuel
diesel |
7.07 |
13.55 |
0.26 |
5027.6 |
|
Other fuel
oil |
8.12 |
13.26 |
18.87 |
-29.7 |
|
Lubricating
oil |
1.18 |
2.22 |
2.69 |
-17.6 |
|
Lubricating
base oil |
0.58 |
0.64 |
2.40 |
-73.3 |
|
LPG
export |
1.91 |
2.34 |
1.01 |
132.0 |
Source: Customs General
Administration
Figure 15 China¡¯s
product oil import volume from 1996 to 2002
Figure 16 Fuel
oil import sources change in the first half year
Price decreasing in
the international market, import tariff reducing and domestic
ascending clean fuel demands cause LPG import volume to increase
significantly. The imported LPG includes liquefied propane,
butane and their mixture. Because the import tariff of propane
and butane drop from 6% to 5%, the import volume of their
mixture gas falls from 6% to 3% at the beginning of this year,
it causes that the growth of mixture gas import volume is twice
higher than that of propane and butane. In the first year, our
country imports 3.0164million tons LPG, jump up 40.6% in
comparison with the same period of last year. The revival of the
east China LPG market is the main characteristic of import
growth. In the first half year, the import volume of Guangzhou
rises 24%, meanwhile, the import volume of the east China
sharply leaps up 104%, and reaches 937.1 thousand tons. The
annual growth rate of domestic LPG demand approaches 10%,
however the domestic yield growth is only less than 4%, the
import demand is ardent. The price falling in international
market creates beneficial condition for imports. The average
import CIF cost per ton in our country falls from $327 in the
same period of last year to $235.
Table 14 LPG
import volumes in the first year, based on cities
|
Provinces
or cities |
2nd
quarter
2002
(million
tons) |
1st
half 2002
£¨million
tons£© |
1st
half 2001
(million
tons) |
Change,02/01
£¨%£© |
|
Guangdong |
96.59 |
198.58 |
160.40 |
23.8 |
|
Guangxi |
1.01 |
3.98 |
3.85 |
3.4 |
|
Hainan |
1.77 |
4.44 |
2.80 |
58.5 |
|
South
China |
99.37 |
207.01 |
167.05 |
23.9 |
|
Shanghai |
7.57 |
15.30 |
10.21 |
49.8 |
|
Jiangsu |
13.71 |
25.33 |
14.06 |
80.2 |
|
Zhejiang |
25.88 |
51.59 |
15.01 |
243.8 |
|
Fujian |
0.73 |
1.49 |
6.62 |
-77.5 |
|
East China |
47.89 |
93.71 |
45.90 |
104.2 |
|
Tianjin |
0.21 |
0.47 |
0.50 |
-7.1 |
|
Liaoning |
0.20 |
0.43 |
0.60 |
-28.6 |
|
Other Cities |
- |
0.03 |
0.00 |
2092.9 |
|
North
China and Northeast China |
0.41 |
0.92 |
1.10 |
-15.8 |
|
In total |
147.68 |
301.64 |
214.04 |
40.9 |
Source: Customs General
Administration
Table15 LPG
import volume in the first half year, based on sources
|
Sources |
2nd
quarter
2002
£¨million
tons£© |
1st
half
2002
£¨million
tons£© |
1st
half
2001
£¨million
tons£© |
Change
02/01
£¨%£© |
|
|
Saudi Arabia |
33.34 |
63.39 |
41.09 |
54.3 |
|
|
The United
Arab Emirates |
23.99 |
48.23 |
36.96 |
30.5 |
|
|
Kuwait |
16.99 |
28.60 |
1.99 |
1340.9 |
|
|
Iran |
8.81 |
15.69 |
3.69 |
324.8 |
|
|
Qatar |
- |
3.04 |
7.66 |
-60.4 |
|
|
Other
countries |
0.59 |
1.33 |
1.35 |
-1.9 |
|
|
Middle east |
83.72 |
160.28 |
92.74 |
72.8 |
|
|
Malaysia |
9.10 |
22.10 |
12.16 |
81.7 |
|
|
Thailand |
10.41 |
22.87 |
31.83 |
-28.1 |
|
|
Australia |
9.77 |
24.89 |
10.66 |
133.5 |
|
|
Indonesia |
7.97 |
16.57 |
10.78 |
53.8 |
|
|
South Korea |
3.13 |
9.59 |
15.15 |
-36.7 |
|
|
Taiwan |
3.74 |
8.52 |
8.85 |
-3.8 |
|
|
Singapore |
2.65 |
3.90 |
6.61 |
-41.0 |
|
|
New Zealand |
0.38 |
0.57 |
1.94 |
-70.7 |
|
|
Philippine |
0.19 |
0.40 |
2.27 |
-82.5 |
|
|
Other
countries |
0.20 |
3.06 |
3.97 |
-23.0 |
|
|
Asia &
Pacific Region |
47.55 |
112.46 |
104.22 |
7.9 |
|
|
Algeria |
1.06 |
7.46 |
5.99 |
24.7 |
|
|
Nigeria |
3.30 |
7.23 |
1.20 |
502.5 |
|
|
Venezuela |
3.81 |
3.81 |
- |
- |
|
|
Britain |
- |
1.45 |
5.64 |
-74.2 |
|
|
Norway |
1.04 |
1.04 |
- |
- |
|
|
U.S.A. |
6.24 |
6.24 |
1.14 |
445.4 |
|
|
Other
countries |
0.95 |
1.65 |
3.12 |
-47.0 |
|
|
Other regions |
16.40 |
28.90 |
17.09 |
69.1 |
|
|
Of which£ºPropane |
26.13 |
59.95 |
49.29 |
21.6 |
|
|
Butane |
61.48 |
123.51 |
92.77 |
33.1 |
|
|
Mixture gas |
60.06 |
118.17 |
71.99 |
64.2 |
|
|
In total |
147.68 |
301.64 |
214.04 |
40.9 |
|
¡¡ |
|
¡¡ |
¡¡ |
¡¡ |
¡¡ |
¡¡ |
Source: Customs General
Administration
Figure 17 LPG
import volumes of the main cities, based on quarters
Figure 18 LPG
import variation, based on variety
Figure 19 China¡¯s
LPG import volumes from 1999 to 2002, based on months
¡¡
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